Chicago winter haters can rejoice as the Windy City predicted to have less snow this year

Chicago is heading toward a warmer-than-average winter after an unusually mild and dry October, while a powerful El Niño pattern raises the odds of below-average snowfall across the region, according to CBS News Chicago. Forecasters caution, however, that the outlook does not rule out bitter cold, snowstorms or icy precipitation.

October gave November a difficult comparison. Chicago’s average temperature was 60.8 degrees, or 6.8 degrees above normal, tying the city’s sixth-warmest October in more than 150 years of records, the National Weather Service confirmed, as reported by WTTW.

The city recorded an average high of 70 degrees and an average low of 51.6 degrees. On Oct. 12, temperatures reached 88 degrees, setting a daily record. Chicago also tied its October record for the most days at or above 60 degrees, with 28.

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A warm and unusually dry October

Overnight temperatures stayed at 50 degrees or higher on 21 days. The mercury fell below 40 degrees only once and never reached freezing during the month, according to the National Weather Service data cited by WTTW.

Rainfall totaled 2.61 inches, which was 0.82 inches below normal. About 2.3 inches fell during only two days, making the month drier in practice than the total alone suggests. A cooldown was expected later in the week and into the following weekend.

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El Niño points to milder winter conditions

For meteorological winter—December through February—NOAA’s outlook favors above-normal temperatures across the Great Lakes. The precipitation forecast is near average, but that does not necessarily mean Chicago will receive average snowfall.

Past strong to very strong El Niño winters since 1950 have generally favored below-average seasonal snowfall in Chicago and nearby areas. The pattern can shift the jet stream south, reducing the number of storm systems reaching the region and increasing the chance of milder weather, CBS News Chicago reported.

El Niño develops when Pacific Ocean waters near the equator become warmer than usual. Warmer conditions may also increase the chance that some storms bring rain, sleet, or freezing rain instead of snow.

Still, the forecast describes broad seasonal trends, not daily weather. Chicago typically receives about 38 inches of snow each season, and forecasters say even a mild winter can include severe cold and significant winter storms.