Timing the market is risky for homebuyers, but waiting could yield better deals.
- Austin, Denver, Miami, and Phoenix are among the markets expected to see home prices drop by 20% or more.
- These 11 markets are experiencing the sharpest imbalance between housing supply, affordability, and demand fundamentals.
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., Aug. 15, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Everyone knows real estate is local, and some markets are riskier than others. NewHomeSource examined active listings, affordability, community count, employment growth, homeowner insurance burden, net migration, and price appreciation to determine these are the 11 riskiest markets to buy a house in right now.
These are the markets facing the sharpest imbalance between supply, affordability, and demand fundamentals. While not uniformly fragile, most of these markets share common indicators such as increased inventory, declining affordability, and rising insurance burdens.
Combined, these dynamics make this tier the most susceptible to deep corrections, projected at 20% or more from peak.
- Austin: Overheated market amid a correction. Surge in listings since 2019.
- Boise: Most community growth and eroding new home affordability. High investor presence.
- Denver: Listings have grown both YOY and since 2019.
- Jacksonville: High insurance burden and mega investor activity.
- Lakeland: Most listings growth since 2019. Insurance pressures compounding affordability issues.
- Miami: Highest insurance burden, significant price growth, and investor pullback.
- Myrtle Beach: Decelerating migration coupled with high existing home price growth.
- Orlando: More listings and prices have also increased
- Phoenix: Warning signs from slowing migration, price growth, and weakening affordability.
- Sarasota: Insurance pressure along with moderate supply risk.
- Tampa: Highest existing home price appreciation, plus rising insurance costs.
What this means for homebuyers: In these high-risk markets, conditions point toward the greatest likelihood of steep price corrections — potentially 20% or more from peak values.
For buyers, this creates both opportunity and caution: waiting could yield better deals, but timing the market is risky. If buying now, homebuyers should focus on well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods, negotiate aggressively, and be prepared for short-term fluctuations while keeping a long-term view.
About NewHomeSource
NewHomeSource is America's #1 source for new construction homes and communities. Powered by Zonda's advanced data and virtual engagement tools, NewHomeSource connects builders and homebuyers through immersive, personalized experiences. Explore the most complete collection of new home listings at NewHomeSource.com.
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