Fetterman Is Stuck Between a Rock and a 'Hard' GOP Place

SP&R’s latest Pennsylvania poll conducted June 16-21 (with 713 Likely voters) shows U.S. Sen. John Fetterman with a 41% job approval after two and a half years in office. On the surface, this isn’t so bad. For comparison, former U.S. Sen. Bob Casey had a 37% job approval rating in our polling in April 2009 – approximately two and a half years into his first term, or after serving a similar amount of time as Fetterman. All things considered, Fetterman is overperforming past politicians after a similar amount of time in office.

But the problem concerns the source of his overperformance. A look under the proverbial hood shows that Fetterman’s approval rating with Democrats – not Republicans – is the problem. For example, Fetterman has a 45% approval rating with Pennsylvania’s GOP voters, but only a 40% approval rating with voters in his own Democratic party.  And more Democrats (39%) than Republicans (37%) disapprove of Fetterman’s job performance. This is nothing short of staggering.

Fetterman is the tale of two different politicians. Before he was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022, Fetterman expressed contempt for Trump and espoused support for core progressive policies. Today, he’s a critic of his own Democratic party and post-2024, even signals support for many Trump policies.

Consider the John Fetterman before he was elected in 2022. He campaigned as a progressive and strong supporter of strengthening unions and LGBTQ rights. As mayor of Braddock, he performed same-sex marriage ceremonies for gay couples – even before it was legal to do so. In 2016, he endorsed the progressive standard bearer Bernie Sanders for president. And on Trump, no one was harsher than Fetterman. For example, Fetterman tweeted in 2017 that Trump “saw his shadow today – 4 more years of fascism!” And don’t forget it was Fetterman’s own campaign that once sold T-shirts with the slogan: “Trump is a jagoff.”

But consider the milder, more Republican-friendly John Fetterman of recent years.  He strongly backs Trump’s military strikes in Iran and continues to be an unabashed supporter of Israel. He threw U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez under the bus after she called for Trump to be impeached after the Iranian bombings. And in a television briefing before the U.S. Senate Homeland Security Committee, Fetterman even apologized to the nation for his own party’s immigration policy, telling Secretary Kristi Noem that Democrats “failed to close the border and we deserve to pay a political price for that.”  He has also said his own party’s “brand” has grown toxic. And when negative stories come out about the U.S. Senator’s internal battles with his own staff, he often blames “left-leaning media.”

And Fetterman’s pro-Trump, pro-Republican stances on immigration, Israel, and protests against ICE have clearly earned him points with Pennsylvania voters, while his approval rating with core Democratic constituencies is circling the drain. Consider that in SP&R’s own poll, Fetterman’s approval rating with 18–29-year-olds is a negative 36:46. Why is this a big deal? According to CNN exit polling, Fetterman won this demographic in his Senate race against Mehmet Oz by an astonishing 70:28 margin. Fetterman’s approval rating with minorities is also a problem. Among blacks, he is a negative 35:40 (approve to disapprove), while in 2022 against Oz he won black voters by a 91:8 margin, according to exit polls. Even in the Democratic bastion of Philadelphia, Fetterman has a negative 43:48 (positive to negative) approval rating. But in the conservative “T” of Pennsylvania, which includes a huge swath of territory where Trump racked up close to 80% of the vote in 2024, Fetterman is in positive territory at 41:33 (approve to disapprove). 

So Fetterman is stuck between a rock and a “hard” GOP place. Republicans like him, but probably won’t vote for him. Democrats don’t like him but will probably have to (unless he is primaried in 2028 and a new Democratic nominee emerges). So Fetterman has a decision to make. Does he maintain his allegiance to his initial base, i.e., the state’s progressive Democrats? Or does he continue to cultivate GOP friends with his straight-talking, common-sense approach to governing? Some in the media, like the Philadelphia Inquirer, have already blasted Fetterman in recent editorials, telling him to “do his job or step aside.” Others in the Democratic party say he’s already the walking dead.

The only upside to Fetterman’s approval rating is that 22% of the state’s voters – nearly 1 in 4 - were “unsure” how to grade him on job approval.  This could be an opportunity for Fetterman to better define his “brand.”  The question is, what brand does he want to have?