Sheehy leads Tester in early Montana US Senate results

Montana Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy greets supporters outside of a rally in Bozeman on Aug. 9, 2024. (Photo by Blair Miller, Daily Montanan)

The U.S. Senate race in Montana was too early to call as of 11 p.m. Tuesday, as only 15% of votes had been reported and several counties still had voters at the polls, but Republican Tim Sheehy led Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Tester by 16 percentage points.

Only 15% of votes have been reported so far in Montana, but Sheehy’s early lead of about 19,000 votes reflects the national trend of Republicans winning tight Senate races Tuesday.

U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Montana, speaks to a crowd of supporters in Helena on Nov. 4, 2024, a day before the 2024 election. (Photo by Blair Miller, Daily Montanan)

Republicans had already picked up two Senate seats as of 10:30 p.m. when Republican Jim Justice won the race in West Virginia and Bernie Moreno defeated incumbent U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Libertarian Sid Daoud and Green Party candidate Robert Barb each had 1% of the vote in the race as of 10:30 p.m.

The race has been one of the most closely watched and expensive of any in the country this year. Tester was the lone statewide elected Democrat left in Montana, which has voted increasingly for Republicans in recent years, but Tester has had success with ticket-splitting Republicans and independents in a state where it used to be the norm. Tester has held his seat since he was first elected in 2006.

Sheehy, a political newcomer handpicked by U.S. Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who was in charge of Republican efforts to retake the Senate this cycle, faced a litany of scrutiny over his business’ finances, racist comments about Native Americans, his disparaging of young women, and lies he told about a gunshot wound in his arm and parachuting into Glacier National Park while training as a Navy SEAL.

Montana Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy addresses the crowd at a rally in Bozeman alongside Gov. Greg Gianforte on Aug. 9, 2024. (Photo by Blair Miller, Daily Montanan)

Sheehy and the Daines-led National Republican Senatorial Committee also fended off a primary challenge from U.S. Rep. Matt Rosendale, the Republican who had lost to Tester in 2018, who dropped out of the Senate race about a week after he finally declared his candidacy due in part to former President Donald Trump quickly endorsing Sheehy in the primary.

Sheehy and Daines consistently criticized Tester during Sheehy’s year-and-a-half long campaign as a longtime politician who has lost touch with Montana as it has shifted to being a redder state over the past five years especially. And they repeatedly tied him to the policies of the Biden administration and Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, who has been Democratic caucus leader since 2016.

Tester, a Big Sandy farmer who had previously succeeded in warding off Republican challengers despite the state voting for Republican presidents, drew lines between himself and the Biden administration, particularly on issues surrounding southern border security and energy production.

But he also tightly clung to his support for abortion access, a key policy this year with a constitutional amendment on abortion on Montana’s ballot, supporting Medicare and Social Security, and working to get Montana federal money to support infrastructure, water, and energy projects.

Former President Donald Trump’s lone appearance in Montana this cycle came at a rally to support Sheehy in Bozeman in August, at which Trump criticized Tester as a “big slob” and told the crowd they had to vote for Sheehy.

Sheehy said those at the rally needed to support Trump and all down-ballot Republicans in order to win back the Senate and put Trump’s agenda in place should he win the presidency.