And the winner is…Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley vie for roles in Anthropic & OpenAI IPO

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are jockeying for the most valuable role in two expected megadeals from OpenAI and Anthropic, according to Fortune. The bank named lead left on the IPO prospectus gets the power to decide how shares are allocated, giving it a stronger grip on the most coveted investor accounts, the report noted.

That position can bring far more than the other banks in the syndicate, which still share fees and provide coverage but do not control share placement, according to University of Florida professor Jay Ritter, a leading IPO scholar cited by Fortune. Goldman already holds the lead left role in the SpaceX deal, the report confirmed.

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Why banks chase the first-day pop

The Wall Street Journal reported that Wall Street often benefits when an IPO rises sharply on its first day of trading, because investors who receive shares at the offer price can realize quick gains and later direct more trading business to the banks. Ritter’s historical data, cited by the Journal, show that about three-quarters of U.S. IPOs have a first-day pop, with an average gain of 19%.

For the banks, the bigger payoff can come from so-called soft dollars, which Ritter described as trading commissions above execution costs that can flow back to the underwriting firms, per Fortune. In the SpaceX deal, Fortune said the expected $86 billion raise would generate about $600 million in fees, but a strong opening-day jump could send much larger value back to the banks through trading-related business. According to CNBC, traders are expecting a lucrative first day when SpaceX begins trading on Friday, June 12.

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What the OpenAI and Anthropic deals could mean

According to Fortune, OpenAI and Anthropic are each expected to seek at least $60 billion in their public offerings, making them among the richest potential IPOs in Wall Street history. The report said Goldman and Morgan Stanley have been chosen as top book runners, but neither company has decided which bank will receive the lead left spot.

Ritter told Fortune that investors and funds are likely spreading business across both banks until those decisions are final. The article also noted that Goldman grew sales and trading revenue 18% to a record $41.5 billion last year, while Morgan Stanley rose 17% to $33.1 billion, underscoring the scale of the competition for the biggest upcoming listings.